From time to time, ITR Economics provides overviews on different customer markets which supplement other materials that MCAA members receive. Some of these we will make available to the public.
In a Special Bulletin released in August, ITR cautions about the forecast for the balance of 2015. They noted that the Chinese had devalued their currency. The change in policy appears to be an attempt to stimulate China’s exports in light of the ongoing cyclical weakness in that economy. Two consequences to the current change are 1) a stronger US dollar and 2) weaker oil prices. Neither consequence is helpful to the macroeconomic status in the US. Read more in their bulletin.
ITR reports that Industrial Machinery New Orders were dramatically altered in the mid-May data revision by the US Census Bureau. The 12-month moving total was taken down 47.4% from the figure reported in last month’s Trends Report, necessitating a revision to our forecast. New Orders will descend at a more rapid pace this year, ending 2015 21.4% below 2014 (our previous forecast called for a 14.1% decline). On a positive note, New Orders will rise once we enter 2016 and subsequently rise through 2017, surpassing the current level in the third quarter of 2016. Read more at Industrial Machinery New Orders, June 2015
According to ITR, The trend for Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders was revised lower in late May in response to a significant data revision by the US Census Bureau. We are still projecting business cycle decline into late 2015, but the outlook is more negative. Expect New Orders in 2015 to come in 3.0% below the 2014 level before growth takes hold in 2016. The projected growth rates of 8.4% and 5.8% for 2016 and 2017 are virtually unchanged from the prior forecast. Read more at Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders, June 2015